The new edition of the Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), which was recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR, took a step back, while still showing growth.
According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.
And it explained that the TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions include: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. And a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.
For December, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading came in at 2.67, down from November’s 3.02, its highest reading going back to April 2022.
The October TCI, at 0.49, was an improvement over September’s -2.47 reading. This was preceded by August’s -1.39, which improved over July’s -5.59 reading. The June TCI reading was at -0.95, with May positive, at 2.24. Prior to that, the April TCI was -1.95, with March at -7.25, which was its lowest reading going back to September 2023.
FTR observed that despite the less than one-point sequential difference, the TCI’s underlying factors saw significant shifts.
One shift was December freight rates being considerably more unfavorable for carriers when compared to November—while contributions from freight volume and capacity utilization saw strong gains. And it added that while its forecast for trucking conditions is indicative of near-term weakness driven by fuel prices and freight rates, it expects TCI readings to be consistently positive by the second quarter.
“Preliminary data suggests that market conditions were tough for carriers in January, but we still forecast consistently favorable market conditions for carriers to begin soon,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “Freight rates have been sluggish, however, so the risk of a slower recovery than currently forecast is significant. Volatility in economic data due to tariff expectations and response from businesses and consumers injects further uncertainty into the outlook. Despite these concerns, we are confident in modestly stronger conditions for trucking companies at least by the second half of the year.”
