Various factors paced spot truckload freight volumes in January, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index, which issued today by DAT Freight and Analytics.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.
DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of January, including:
- the van TVI, at 277, was up 6% compared to December and up 8% annually (its tenth straight positive annual reading);
- the refrigerated TVI, at 237, was up 7% compared to December and up 13% annually;
- the flatbed TVI, at 256, was up 8% compared to December and up 6% annually;
- national average spot rates, for each three segments, were up, from December to January, with van up $0.04, to $2.16 per mile, refrigerated up $0.08, to $2.55, and flatbed up $0.05, to $2.44 (DAT said that spot rates were supported by carriers negotiating to recover higher fuel costs compared to December);
- linehaul rates, which DAT said subtract an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge, saw slight sequential gains, from December to January, with van up $0.02, to $1.76 per mile, refrigerated up $0.06, to $2.12, and flatbed up $0.02, to $1.96;
- January’s diesel fuel average, at $3.63 per gallon, headed up $0.14; and
- national average contract rates were mixed, with the contract van rate, at $2.41 per mile, up $0.02 sequentially and down $0.03 annually, the reefer rate, at $2.76 per mile, up $0.02 sequentially and down $0.10 annually; and the contract flatbed rate, at $3.07 per mile, up $0.01 sequentially and down $0.01 annually
DAT cited inventory replenishment efforts by shippers following the holidays—coupled with pulling forward imports ahead of anticipated tariff actions and also trying to secure flexible, short-term spot market capacity to better deal with harsh winter weather—as the main drivers for spot truckload freight volume gains.
“January was a month of mixed indicators, with shippers rebalancing inventories as they typically do while responding to the uncertainty of tariffs, higher fuel costs, and unusually bad weather,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics, in a statement.
In an interview with LM, Adamo explained that January’s performance was akin to the cliché “in like a lion and out like a lamb,” in that the month began with a fair amount of optimism, followed by what he viewed as a correction over the back half of the month.
“For the most part, we probably added an extra week of strength seasonally than we normally would have and things corrected in the second half of the month and into February so far, as we are literally right on top of last year’s trend,” he said. “There is no daylight between where rates and volumes were in late January and early February 2024 to now. “When things are at equilibrium, what happens? Temporary shocks destabilize things, and then it comes right back, and that is what happened.”
That was evidenced in the tariff-driven pull-forward of freight, a robust Peak Season, and some weather events that snarled market conditions into the middle of the month. Which Adamo led to the same capacity and demand situations as a year ago. He likened the current situation to being viewed as “nervous money,” with people unsure if they should be pulling forward freight or decide to wait, adding that the uneven tempo of tariff announcements and subsequent delays, in some cases, is creating uncertainty for shippers.
And, for shippers, he added that is leading to a situation in which they don’t know if pulling freight forward will hurt them, given expensive inventory carrying costs, or dealing with issues if they don’t take action.
“They are really in a holding pattern, and RFP season is underway, and I think most folks are getting a bit of a surprise in seeing rates up 5%-to-7% year-over-year,” he said.
Addressing tariffs, Adamo said that with Chinese tariffs appearing to be the stickiest, it requires a watchful eye on Southern California and West Coast port volumes from China, on the heels of the recently-completed Lunar New Year. He noted that it is more likely to see the full impact of some of the Chinese tariffs into late February.
