Preliminary January Class 8 truck net orders saw sequential and annual declines, according to data recently respectively issued FTR and ACT Research.
FTR reported that preliminary January Class 8 net orders, at 24,000 units, fell 28% compared to December and were off 15% annually, coming up short of seasonal expectations, as well as the seven-year January average, at 27,950 units. And it added that with tariff tensions among the three North American trading partners, coupled with increasing uncertainty in the freight transportation market, positive momentum, which had been intact at the outset of 2025 order season is seeing some pushback.
But against that backdrop, FTR said that cumulative net orders from September 2024 through January 2025 for build in 2025 remain 3% higher annually. Through January 2025, it said Class 8 orders came in at 276,917 units over the last 12 months. FTR also noted that the sequential decline in order activity follows several months of solid seasonal comparisons, with the on-highway market representing most of the sequential declines as vocational orders were flat sequentially.
“A 25% U.S. tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico—currently paused for trade negotiations through early March—and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as of February 4 could significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks and parts if fully implemented and enforced indefinitely,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, for FTR. “With roughly 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks built in Mexico and around 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks built in the U.S., tariffs and likely counter-tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and drive up vehicle prices. Combined with upcoming U.S. EPA 2027 NOx regulations, tariffs could accelerate or delay fleet upgrades. While OEMs and suppliers may explore shifting production to mitigate potential tariff impacts, such changes are complex and will take some time to implement. Ongoing trade negotiations and policy uncertainties may already be influencing investment decisions and long-term planning for fleets, OEMs, and suppliers.”
ACT data: ACT reported that preliminary January net orders, at 25,800 units, were off 30% compared to December and down 5% annually.
“While January orders took a step down from the recent trend, strength continues to be the applicable descriptor of Class 8 order activity. In January, Class 8 orders dropped 5.1% annually to 25,800 units,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “While down narrowly from last January, orders were down 30% against a seasonally stronger December. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 22% from December to 23,300 units, and a 279k SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Over the past six months, orders have been booked at a 32,000-unit SAAR.”
